Your friend is the owner of a stock which had returns of 25 percent, -36 percent, 1 percent, and 16 percent for the past four years. Your friend thinks the stock may be able to achieve a return of 50 percent or more in a single year. Based on these returns, what is the probability that your friend is correct?
B.
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greater than 0.5 percent but less than 1.0 percent
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C.
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greater than 1.0 percent but less than 2.5 percent
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D.
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greater than 2.5 percent but less than 16 percent
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E.
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greater than 16.0 percent
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Average return = (0.25 - 0.36 + 0.01 + 0.16)/4 = 0.015 σ = √[1/(4 - 1)] [(0.25 - 0.015)2 + (-0.36 - 0.015)2 + (0.01 - 0.015)2 + (0.16 - 0.015)2] = 0.2689 Upper end of 68 percent range = 0.015 + (1 × 0.2689) = 28.39 percent Upper end of 95 percent range = 0.015 + (2 × 0.2689) = 55.28 percent The probability of earning at least 50 percent in any one year is greater than 2.5 percent but less than 16 percent.
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